Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 8-R.Rehkow punts 52 yards to NYJ 24, Center-46-W.Wagner. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 36 for 12 yards (37-P.Jules; 38-D.Ivey). PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model