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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 8

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.45 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 8, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP