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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 51

New York Jets 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 38

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 7-J.Fields pass short left to 89-J.Ruckert to CIN 27 for 24 yards (49-B.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.58 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model