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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 38 – New York Jets 32

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to NYJ 21, Center-46-W.Wagner. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 42 for 21 yards (25-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 78, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 35, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model