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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 63

New York Jets 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 20-B.Hall right end to NYJ 35 for -2 yards (49-B.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.64 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model