Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 38 – New York Jets 39

(:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 80-A.Iosivas (29-J.Brownlee).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.10 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -0.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model