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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 63

New York Jets 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to CIN 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model