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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 44-S.Tucker left guard to NO 1 for no gain (58-C.Rumph; 93-N.Shepherd).

The Three Options

GO +3.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.23 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 1, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model