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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 46

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 32-K.Kroeger punts 33 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.53 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model