Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 84

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

(1:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to NO 26, Center-86-E.Deckers. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 34 for 8 yards (32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.87 EP
54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 84, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model