4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 92

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 32-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to TB 37, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-K.Johnson to TB 45 for 8 yards (44-I.Stalbird).

The Three Options

GO -3.39 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.17 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 92, worth -5.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 50, worth -2.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model