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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(11:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (23-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model