4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(4:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Stoll.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.82 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP