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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles right guard to NO 30 for 4 yards (8-S.Dennis).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.08 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model