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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 41

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 32-K.Kroeger punts 33 yards to TB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.03 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model