Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 64

Washington Commanders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to KC 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-N.Remigio to KC 39 for 16 yards (39-J.Reaves). PENALTY on KC-31-J.Bassa, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 64, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model