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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 62

Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 14-M.Araiza punts 56 yards to WAS 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 83-J.Lane to WAS 20 for 14 yards (31-J.Bassa).

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.63 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -2.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model