4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 40

Washington Commanders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to KC 35 for 5 yards (35-J.Watson). (Virtual Measurement).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model