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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 4 at the 4
Dallas Cowboys 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0
What Actually Happened
(10:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at ARI 11 for -7 yards (10-J.Sweat).
The Three Options
GO
+3.08 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.99 EP
- 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 4, worth +0.59 EP
KICK
+2.00 EP
- 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT
+0.32 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
