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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.08 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP