4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 21

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Arizona Cardinals 27

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb (29-D.Burke) [10-J.Sweat].

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.85 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model