Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 27 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to DAL 32, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on DAL-21-C.Carson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.97 EP
61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 79, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model