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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 36

Arizona Cardinals 27 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(2:35) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 18-M.Harrison.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.88 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP