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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NE 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.97 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model