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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 13

New England Patriots 21 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 36-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model