Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 14 – New England Patriots 24

(5:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NE 35, Center-49-L.McCullough. 25-M.Jones to NE 48 for 13 yards (28-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.79 EP
56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model