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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 14 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.98 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model