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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 47

New England Patriots 24 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 32 yards to ATL 15, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.58 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model