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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 20 at the 58

Atlanta Falcons 23 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NE 16, Center-49-L.McCullough. 25-M.Jones to NE 18 for 2 yards (84-F.Franks; 4-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.53 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -2.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model