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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 36

Green Bay Packers 6 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(14:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 30-C.Brooks pushed ob at CAR 28 for 8 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.93 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model