4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 13

Green Bay Packers 6 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 87-R.Doubs [11-N.Scourton].

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.64 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model