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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 6 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(5:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 18-M.Heath to CAR 32 for 11 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.80 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model