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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 15

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 15, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model