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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 6

Chicago Bears 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 8-C.Santos 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP