4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Chicago Bears 34

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model