4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 33

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Chicago Bears 41

What Actually Happened

(3:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to CHI 12 for 21 yards (49-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.04 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP