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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 2

Chicago Bears 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:50) (Shotgun) 75-O.Trapilo reported in as eligible. 2-D.Moore pass short right to 18-C.Williams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.20 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 2, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model