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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 91

Chicago Bears 41 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CIN 43, Center-46-S.Daly. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 45 for 2 yards (44-N.Sewell).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.13 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 91, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.44 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 48, worth -2.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model