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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to IND 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 21 for 11 yards (26-B.Echols).

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.29 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP