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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 20

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(9:14) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to IND 16 for 4 yards (20-N.Cross; 98-E.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.87 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 20, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model