4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 63

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 85-K.Williams to PIT 18 for 8 yards (95-A.Adebawore; 16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP