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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 17-D.Jones up the middle to IND 37 for 2 yards (97-Ca.Heyward; 41-P.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.91 EP
  • 23% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model