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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to PIT 44 for 16 yards (5-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.22 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model