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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 33

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 12-M.Badgley 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.29 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model