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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 78

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 3-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to IND 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-26-B.Echols at IND 11.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.16 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 78, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model