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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 4

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(4:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Washington.

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.45 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 4, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model