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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(:30) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-R.Thomas. 25-R.Thomas up the middle to IND 28 for 3 yards (41-P.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.73 EP
  • 22% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model