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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to LAC 30, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.58 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model