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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 31

Tennessee Titans 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model