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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(:25) 11-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.31 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model